They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. All. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. Local news is disappearing across the country. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. You can't imitate a worldview. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Instagram did not return a 200. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. 266, the . The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. Dive in and Share your insights! And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. podcast transcripts and podcast transcription services. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! They consider how much. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. . American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. 11:03 AM. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". All rights reserved. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. The data behind that evolution is striking. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? 2,. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. Rev. File Upload. This is the second episode. It's a busy week! In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? police- settlements. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. 9 days ago. Whereas Tester . In the main event, former light In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. david senak now. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. 01:06 PM. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? It's easy. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. June 2, 2016. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20. twitter. No place like 'Nam. Saturday, February 25, 2023. Hello and welcome to the identity politics podcast I'm deal injury work. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Join. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. gold rush supreme second chance winners. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Thats Changing. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. 01:00 PM. 71 Episodes Share Follow Seasons About 38 minutes | Feb 16, 2023 The Hero Who Rode His Segway Off a Cliff Steve Jobs called It "the most amazing piece of technology since the PC." According to Jeff Bezos It was not only "revolutionary," but infinitely commercial.